Two “Eighth Dates” and Azerbaijan’s new strategic phase in the South Caucasus
From Tamilla Mamadova [Invited Expert on International Relationsat the STEM Analytical Center]
In recent years, the number “8” has acquired a particularly symbolic significance for Azerbaijan. On November 8, 2020, the country celebrated its historic victory—the liberation of Shusha—which marked the culmination of the Second Karabakh War and solidified the restoration of its territorial integrity. This date has permanently entered history as Victory Day, a symbol of national unity and determination.
Nearly five years later, on August 8, 2025, Azerbaijan once again became the focus of global attention. On that day in Washington, under the active mediation of the United States, President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a peace declaration, opening a new stage of regional development. This step not only conclusively formalized the cessation of hostilities but also signaled a transition from war to peaceful coexistence and cooperation. These two “eighth dates” have become symbols of distinct yet interconnected phases in Azerbaijan’s history: first, victory and the restoration of sovereignty, and later, the move toward diplomacy and regional integration.
The August agreements offer the region unique prospects. For the first time in decades, real conditions are being established for dialogue and cooperation among the three key countries—Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. This involves not only political stabilization but also strategic collaboration in energy, logistics, and trade. The creation of working groups, joint monitoring mechanisms, and infrastructural corridors could serve as the foundation for a new architecture of regional security and sustainable development.
The Washington summit and the formation of a new post-conflict architecture
Particular attention should be given to the context that necessitated the Washington Summit. An analysis of the situation following the Karabakh conflict shows that over the past five years, Russia’s influence was exercised in a limited manner with respect to opening communications and facilitating regional stabilization. This gap created space for active engagement by the United States, which offered its own platform for negotiations and oversight of agreement implementation. As a result, a new configuration of international influence is taking shape: the corridor of governance and security now includes both regional and global actors, contributing to a more balanced distribution of power and enhancing multilateral oversight.
The expanded involvement of the United States and NATO in the South Caucasus provides the countries of the region with multidirectional opportunities for strategic development. This not only strengthens overall stability but also reduces the risk of renewed armed conflicts in “frozen” zones, acting as a guarantor of the security of international transport and energy routes. For Azerbaijan, these processes constitute recognition of its diplomatic and military efforts to restore territorial integrity, enhance the country’s international standing, and legitimize the reforms it has undertaken. For Armenia, this sends a signal of the need to move away from an isolated and regressive policy, encouraging a transition toward a more open and integrative stance on the global stage.
Thus, the Washington Summit creates conditions for the formation of a new, more sustainable and balanced security architecture in the South Caucasus. It is important to emphasize that these agreements lay the foundation for long-term peace in the region, which can function effectively only through the conscientious fulfillment of obligations by all parties and the active, consistent support of the international community.
Formal conclusion of the conflict and new horizons
The Washington Declaration acquires fundamental significance for the entire South Caucasus region, establishing a new standard of security and stability. The document formalizes the cessation of hostilities and the mutual recognition of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and Armenia, creating clear legal and political frameworks for future cooperation. The confirmation of the 1991 borders eliminates any territorial claims from Yerevan, including long-standing disputes over Karabakh, and removes one of the key sources of tension in the region.
The Declaration lays a solid foundation for a future peace treaty, which will be submitted for ratification by the parliaments of both countries, while also opening the possibility of a referendum in Armenia, emphasizing the legitimacy and transparency of the process. This step demonstrates the willingness of both parties to move from a prolonged conflict toward constructive engagement and establishes new institutional mechanisms for conflict resolution.
Overall, the document creates conditions for the peaceful coexistence of the two states, promotes the integration of transport and energy corridors, and opens new horizons for joint projects, which, in the long term, could contribute to dynamic economic growth across the South Caucasus region.
The Zangezur Corridor: geopolitical and economic significance of TRIPP
The agreement on the Zangezur Corridor, officially named the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), holds particular significance for regional stability. This multimodal transport and infrastructure route connect mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through Syunik, creating a unique logistical corridor capable of serving both passenger and freight transport, as well as accommodating the installation of energy and telecommunications networks.
A key feature of TRIPP is its international coordination: The United States receives a 99-year concession for the management and development of the corridor, ensuring the security of the route and its efficient operation. At the same time, Armenia retains full sovereignty over its territory but undertakes not to impede the functioning of the infrastructure, reflecting a combination of national control and international law within a single strategic project.
The TRIPP project represents a unique example of how national sovereignty, adherence to international law, and long-term regional stability can be simultaneously achieved. For Azerbaijan, it consolidates international recognition of its victory, strengthens diplomatic and economic influence, and facilitates integration into neighboring markets. For Armenia, the corridor demonstrates a willingness for open dialogue and a departure from isolating and regressive policies, creating conditions for attracting investment and participating in regional economic initiatives.
From the United States’ perspective, the corridor reinforces the country’s status as a strategic mediator and investor in the region, creating economic and political interests directly linked to maintaining stability. Taken together, TRIPP establishes a new reality in which geopolitical stability and economic development are interdependent: the successful operation of the infrastructure directly fosters trust between the countries, reduces the risk of conflicts, and opens prospects for long-term regional growth.
Thus, the Zangezur Corridor is far more than a transport route. It is a strategic project demonstrating how international cooperation, competent management, and respect for sovereignty can jointly shape a new architecture of regional security and prosperity.
Russia and the Zangezur Corridor: risks and opportunities
The Zangezur Corridor has been the subject of active discussion; however, upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the project does not pose any serious threats to Russia. The concerns currently being voiced are largely associated with plans to lease a 40-kilometer section of the future route to an American company for a long-term period of 99 years. While this fact has raised some apprehension in Moscow, it does not alter the essence of the project.
From the very beginning, Russia was one of the participants in the corridor’s formation. In the trilateral statement of November 10, 2020, signed following the Second Karabakh War, Armenia committed to ensuring unobstructed communication between mainland Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. The signatures of the Presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, as well as the Prime Minister of Armenia, conferred legal and political force on the agreement. Initially, it was discussed that the Border Service of the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) would oversee the operation of the route, reflecting Moscow’s interest in this strategic direction.
Today, however, the project has taken on a broader format. Even with the potential involvement of an American company, the operation of the route is not conducted unilaterally, but multilaterally, with the participation of several other states. This makes the corridor resilient and reduces the likelihood that it could be used as an instrument of pressure by any country.
Under conditions of sanctions and the reduction of cargo flows along the northern route through Russia, the Zangezur Corridor may offer Moscow an additional option for accessing southern routes. New logistical possibilities through Turkey and the Middle East allow for the diversification of transport routes and adaptation to changes in global trade. Kazakhstan also gains significant advantages. Within the framework of this corridor, the country expands its export capabilities, resulting in the creation of a new logistical network in which Central Asia and the South Caucasus serve as a connecting link between Europe and Asia.
Thus, the Zangezur Corridor can be seen not as a source of risk, but as an element of regional economic adaptation to new conditions. For Russia, it provides a way to maintain access to southern routes; for Kazakhstan, it represents an opportunity to diversify foreign trade; and for Azerbaijan, it is a strategic resource that strengthens its position as a key transit hub in Eurasia.
Iran and the Zangezur Corridor: balancing interests
Iran has traditionally held an important position within the transport system of the South Caucasus, serving as one of the key transit links between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. For many years, nearly all road transport passed through its territory, providing Tehran with a significant role and stable revenue from transit. Consequently, with the emergence of the Zangezur Corridor, Iran naturally faced the need to reassess its position within the new logistical realities.
It is important to emphasize that Iran is actively developing its own project—the Aras Corridor, which will run in close proximity to the Zangezur route. Between 2023 and 2024, Baku and Tehran agreed on the construction of several infrastructure facilities, including road and railway bridges across the Aras River, as well as energy and communication lines. In April 2025, delegations from both countries visited the sites and reaffirmed their support for the project, demonstrating strengthened cooperation and readiness to implement joint plans.
The launch of the Zangezur Corridor can be seen as the creation of a parallel channel that enhances the overall resilience of the region’s logistical connections. A dual-route system reduces the region’s dependence on a single path, bringing long-term benefits to all transit participants. In this way, Iran retains its significance as a key transit partner, while the new infrastructure in the region complements its existing capabilities.
The existence of two routes—the Zangezur and Aras Corridors—creates constructive competition, which yields tangible advantages: the region gains expanded logistical opportunities, carriers enjoy greater flexibility in route selection, and participating countries benefit from a more reliable and resilient transport system. Therefore, for Azerbaijan, the Zangezur Corridor reinforces the country’s strategic role as a central transit hub connecting East and West. For Iran, the development of the Aras Corridor and coordination with the new route provides an opportunity to strengthen its existing transit role, improve transport efficiency, and integrate into the expanded logistics network of the South Caucasus.
Thus, both routes—the Zangezur and Aras Corridors—do not compete in a destructive sense, but rather complement each other. This creates a sustainable and flexible transport architecture for the region, enhances its attractiveness for international freight and investment, and strengthens the positions of Azerbaijan and Iran as strategic transit partners, ensuring the sustainable development of the South Caucasus transport system.
Azerbaijan’s practical experience in implementing infrastructure projects
The successful implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects always requires a combination of strategic vision, coordination with partners, and consideration of regional interests. In this regard, Azerbaijan’s experience serves as a clear example of how a country can effectively manage complex initiatives, integrating national priorities with regional cooperation. A key element in fostering international trust in Azerbaijan was the execution of the “Contract of the Century” in 1994—the largest agreement at the time for the development of oil fields in Azerbaijan, concluded with the active support of the national leader Heydar Aliyev. This contract demonstrated the country’s capacity to undertake major international projects, attract strategic partners, and guarantee long-term economic and legal commitments, strengthening its reputation as a reliable partner for subsequent infrastructure initiatives.
The construction of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline naturally continued this trajectory, showing that Azerbaijan is capable of delivering projects that bring tangible economic benefits while simultaneously enhancing regional connectivity without undermining neighboring states. It is well known that the BTC initially faced criticism and skepticism from some neighbors and international experts. Nevertheless, experience has shown that the project proved successful, providing significant economic and geopolitical advantages for all participants. Since commencing operations in 2006, the BTC has played a key role in diversifying energy routes.
The development of the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), represents a logical continuation of Azerbaijan’s successful experience in implementing infrastructure projects. In 2024, freight transportation along the Middle Corridor reached 3.3 million tons, marking a 21% increase compared to 2023 and nearly six times the 2021 level. This growth reflects rising confidence in the route and its ability to provide efficient logistics between China and Europe.
The implementation of the TRIPP project represents the next logical step in this strategy. Within its framework, the construction of railway, energy, and digital infrastructure is planned, which will strengthen regional connectivity and expand economic opportunities. This reinforces trust in the project and demonstrates that new routes can deliver sustainable economic benefits, improve regional logistics integration, and create opportunities for long-term development.
Reforming international mediation mechanisms
The experience of resolving the Karabakh conflict over the past decades has clearly demonstrated that traditional mediation mechanisms do not ensure sustainable progress. The Minsk Group, which existed for more than 25 years, was unable to create real conditions for long-term peace in the region. Its structure was monopolized by the three co-chairs, which limited the participation of other states and hindered the development of constructive dialogue. As a result, despite years of effort, the process remained largely unproductive and yielded no tangible results, highlighting the need to reform the approach to mediation.
In this context, the appeal by the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia to the OSCE regarding the termination of the Minsk Group’s work within the framework of the Washington agreements acquires particular significance. The transfer of functions to the United States opens new horizons for bilateral normalization of relations and allows the region to gain an independent, effective, and dynamic mediation mechanism supported by a major international power. For Azerbaijan, this creates an opportunity to play a more active role in shaping processes that directly affect the country’s security and stability, as well as the prospects for economic and political cooperation in the region.
From isolation to partnership: The symbolism of suspending Section 907
It is also important to emphasize President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend the enforcement of Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. The signing of this document in the Oval Office of the United States, in the presence of President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, became a symbolic event. This gesture demonstrated that Washington is prepared to reassess outdated approaches and acknowledge the new reality in which Azerbaijan has emerged as an independent and influential player.
Adopted in 1992 amid post-Soviet turbulence, the amendment restricted opportunities for direct U.S. assistance to Azerbaijan for decades. This not only hindered the development of economic ties but also imposed political limitations, shaping the perception of Azerbaijan as a country artificially kept on the sidelines of the American partnership system.
Today, Azerbaijan demonstrates the resilience and strength of its economy: the country’s external debt stands at less than 7% of GDP, and Baku already acts as a donor, capable not only of addressing domestic challenges but also of implementing large-scale international projects. Against this backdrop, the removal of restrictions by the United States does not appear as a belated act of “aid,” but rather as a fair correction of a historical imbalance.
Agreements with the United States and Strategic Partnership
The Washington Summit became a key platform for the signing of a wide range of agreements — both trilateral and bilateral — that are shaping a new architecture of post-conflict relations in the South Caucasus. The signing of a memorandum on strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and the United States in crucial areas — energy, cybersecurity, transport, and defense technologies — opens new horizons for the long-term economic and technological development of the region. This step establishes a solid foundation for large-scale growth of American investments, including the participation of leading corporations such as ExxonMobil, thereby enhancing Azerbaijan’s economic dynamism and stimulating the creation of high-technology jobs.
It is important to note that the United States will simultaneously continue to provide support to Armenia, promoting digital modernization, the development of railway infrastructure, and assistance to small businesses in the country. Such a balanced approach demonstrates Washington’s commitment to a comprehensive strengthening of regional stability and to the development of interconnected infrastructure in the South Caucasus, thereby shaping a new institutional and economic architecture for the region.
